Higher Selic Bets in September Prize, Not Monetary Policy View, Experts Say
By Claudia ViolanteSÃO PAULO (Reuters) - With renewed fears about the Turkish situation, investors have again put more premium on the future yield curve, pricing bets on which they will ...
By Claudia ViolanteSAO PAULO (Reuters) - With renewed fears over the Turkish situation, investors have again put more premium on the future yield curve, pricing bets that Brazil's base interest rate is expected to rise next month, even amid the upturn. scenario of weak inflation and economic activity.But the general view, according to experts polled by Reuters, is that this move does not reflect assessments of how the Central Bank will conduct Selic's monetary policy over the course of this year.For them, the rate only rises again in 2019."The market only operates if it has premium. Depending on the news coming out, they are putting or taking premium from the curve, usually based on risk. And the risk is great, both local and external," said the head of the fixed income table. from a local broker.The forward curve priced on Wednesday 85 percent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rise in Selic in September, next meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)...
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